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Holiday Sales Growth in 2022: A Detailed Analysis
The holiday season is often considered the most wonderful time of the year, but it can also be a significant financial burden. Only the back-to-school and back-to-college seasons surpass the winter holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah in terms of consumer spending.
2022 Holiday Sales Performance
To understand how retailers fared during the 2022 holiday shopping season, Experian analyzed data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF uses the Census Bureau’s November and December retail spending data, excluding expenditures at automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
The 2022 holiday season was anticipated to be particularly strong for retailers, with most stores reopening for in-store shopping at full capacity for the first time since early 2020. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, in-store sales increased by 6.8% from November 2022 through December 2022. Online shopping also remained popular, growing by 9.5% since 2021, more than any other category.
The NRF estimates that during the peak holiday spending season, sales reached $936.3 billion in 2022, a 5.3% increase from 2021. This growth rate is higher than the average holiday sales growth rate of 4.9% over the past decade.
Holiday Retail Sales Trends from 2002 to 2022
From 2020 to 2021, holiday sales grew by 13.5% to $889.3 billion, according to the NRF. On average, holiday retail sales have increased by 4.9% year-over-year in the past decade. The NRF had predicted an increase of 6% to 8% between 2021 and 2022, but the actual growth was 5.3%.
The modest sales growth could be attributed to the rising cost of goods due to inflation and consumer concerns about a potential recession. A CNBC study conducted in December 2022 found that 41% of Americans intended to spend less on holiday gifts in 2022 than in 2021. The average planned expenditure was $907 in 2022, compared to $1,004 in 2021.
Changes in Holiday Sales by Store Type, 2021-2022
Despite the slower overall growth in holiday spending, most categories still saw year-over-year sales increases. With 87.2 million consumers shopping online on Black Friday and 77 million on Cyber Monday, it’s no surprise that online and nonstore sales saw the most significant increase from 2021. Spending on groceries and beverages posted the second-highest increase, partly due to the 11.8% rise in the consumer price index for food at home from December 2021 to December 2022.
Only two categories saw declining sales year-over-year: furniture and home goods, and electronics and appliances. This decrease could be due to continued supply chain bottlenecks delaying furniture deliveries or a sign that the trend of consumers investing in home upgrades, which began during the pandemic, is now subsiding.
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